Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. @cjoye. This marks a turning point in your powers. “Super strong US employment data will embolden Fed to push to 5. I suspect the increased earnings (and potentially profit) of the big players in ASX 200 might offset increases in discount rates. and @Johnkehoe23. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. 16 May 2023 00:02:27“Aussie house prices fall another >1% in November, total loss now 7. “@cjoye @PeteWargent Both this and Labor shared equity policy are attempts to shore up supporter bases/buy votes. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. They all have movies on Netflix, and Netflix is down 80%. In this conversation. Some areas down -25. Like. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Team Talk: Cowboys 2023 overview, best 17, squad update. Tech party is over as Canva and Atlassian get tough, and perks dry up“Does any seriously believe house prices will not fall after the RBA cutting the cash rate from 1. @cjoye I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. Fun interview with nabtrade on bond markets. . Redirecting to /user/cjoye/. Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. @cjoye. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09“RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…”christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. “First housing bear in my cross-hairs: UBS concedes yesterday, "Looking fwd, we had expected home prices could drop 10%, but it could be smaller now. Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. “@cjoye Well this RBA info has finally caught up with Alan Kohler I photo’d the tv last yr & kept the dates visible I added words he was saying to the slides Check out the dates! August & October LAST YEAR!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change. Maybe u can get annoyed that the advertisers allowed this ad? But Matt Damon isn't a financial expert, how is he gonna predict what happens in mkts in 2022, lol. This is 70s. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. See new Tweets Nothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed ever Massive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. christopher joye. Found. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . 2021 Olympic Medalist, Joey Lye, shares stories and insight into some of the mental skills and strategies that prepared her [email protected] million in crypto cant be withdrawn on FTX- $13. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. Log in. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. 1% in 2020 drove Aussie houses prices 37% higher. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. CoreLogic: Australian home values officially record the largest decline on record would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @TheKouk · Jul 8. “Good morning!”In this conversation. S&P Reports Australian Home Loan Arrears Rose In December: S&P's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages increased in December to 0. . House price declines not likely to slow until RBA stops hiking. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983 - MacroBusiness. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. . Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 4% pa return. 8 per cent, it would mean that purchasing power has been eroded by a total of 33 per cent since the RBA kicked off this cycle in May last year. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Morning!” We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye After yeeeaars of saving for a deposit and finally getting into the market [at peak Jan 22] we now have to deal with this. The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. . “The great regime change: growth and cheap money are dead of risky assets ‘living in a parallel universe’ - A recession may be precisely the jolt lackadaisical Millennials require to lift their game. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The stunning incident occurred in the waters off Werri Beach in New South Wales on Sunday and was captured on video. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. Quote Tweet. Aug 16. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. This will bring the RBA much closer to global central banks like BoE at 4. 3. non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. “Good morning!” In this conversation. . Replying to . There were good reasons for very low rates (pre-covid) and those reasons haven’t gone away. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Sign upIn this conversation. A controversial article by Christopher Joye, an outspoken investment portfolio manager and columnist for the Australian Financial Review, has. @cjoye @PodcastFear. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. First miss on EPS since IPO, I think. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Your chart is pretty much 12 months already. When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. 5%; 5 capital cities have fallen 3. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersAussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data fromWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Funny thing is many keep saying it hasn't crashed yet. The quarterly pace of decline accelerated to. @cjoye. @cjoye RBA speech just published: almost 30% of Aussie borrowers will suffer a more than 40% increase in their mortgage repayments if the RBA lifts the cash rate by 300 basis points, though concludes everything will be ok in that event. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. “@cjoye Sir. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. “RBA may be told to hold press conferences; Barrenjoey talk queried would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ALT. May 2. Log in. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. @cjoye was one of the few to go against this IIRC. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. 4%. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle… @cjoye A tiny, single day drop in Aussie house prices evidenced in the CoreLogic daily data---is it pure noise or something more substantive as tighter policy grips? corelogic. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in the following weeks. 5% pa, or 2. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Aussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data from We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Especially as pandemic funding measures end”House prices to get whacked by rates again: If the cash rate does indeed hit 4. We have unscrambled the letters cjoye (cejoy) to make a list of all the word combinations found in the popular word scramble. Just think your narrow focus on interest rates as the main driver of house prices and that prices will fall 30% is consistent with many of you other views. “India is an important ally that can’t be trusted Replying to @cjoye Usecases for blockchain are only limited by the imagination. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Likes. Visit cjoye's profile on Zillow to find ratings and reviews. . 9. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. 3:30 AM · May 20, 2022 · Twitter Web App. what you choose? We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Ave wage vs ave savings vs ave mortgage debt does not compute in my mind-who can afford a $600k mortgage at 7% without it destroying monthly income?”“@cjoye See through the noise with China - they are in population decline as Poor Japan v2. Sydney (+1. au. Massive portion of the population realising they are not going to achieve an acceptable basic standard of living. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. com. au “GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This is deflationary. According to your own chart the annualized figure for Sydney is approx 11-12%. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ChandAshok @cjoye Totally agree re government mistakes but struggle to understand why ‘independent organisations’ have the power to dial up the misery of Australians in the form of unemployment and increased costs of lending. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. com. ”“With an inflation-targeting central bank, cash is actually one of your best inflation hedges”See new Tweets. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. . Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . Forecast looks good. Jerome Nugent-Smith. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSign up. Sydney is off 10. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. afr. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). . @parrapower2022 @solo_dio_ @rabbit_wealth @AvidCommentator @BikoKonstantin1 @Aus__Property @rabbit_wealth @justthink1 @cjoye . ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 0%), Melbourne (-7. Logically can't happen. Interesting. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye plenty of illiquidity in the big super funds non-listed assets. This will be record housing crash, 100% triggered by rate hikes - it has only just started. Given the number of markets that have had this set up and tanked. “@cjoye Modi had highest voters support among all democratic countries! As Paul Keating repeatedly pointed out, Albo is just a sucker!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness. 50% in 2019 to 0. “Morning!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1 – weakest reading since the depths of the early-1990s recession, Hassan said. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye posits #stock are 20% overvalued given the 5% discount rate -> seeing this in earnings #mastercard and #carnival both accelerating earnings, but not rewarded post. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…” Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. com. ConversationSee new Tweets. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22 Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness In this conversation. com. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of…” Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. Sign up“@mitch_dol @cjoye @TomInvesting This is the Jan REINZ HPI Index developed with our RBNZ. 9% vs 56. "It's global cyber war out there". We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. FML 🫠”“@cjoye Too corrupt and too much poverty. 85% to 4. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Plus ,Bitcoin and Ethereum are down less than tech stocks. christopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower of cost of capital than normal debt instruments without an ESG label. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. Youre allowed to tweet at new cycle-low milestones only. au. 18 Jul 2023 02:09:39. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye @ALeighMP @Charlton_AB @DanielMulinoMP @AlboMP @JEChalmers Genuine question/thought. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%, the Bank of Canada at 4. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ConversationA not so tiny drop in some parts of the country. Quote Tweet. I am not a house price bull. @cjoye · Aug 5. “Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight “USDC 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB Sign up. @cjoye. then the printing starts again leading to further dilution of currency . ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Our subs will likely need to contain the most serious expansionist ambitions of an India we haven't yet met in the 2040s”“Huge jump in Sydney auction clearance rate to 74. It would not shock me for people in 2034 to be asking "is this the year Australian property prices finally see gains?". In this conversation. com. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. There was only one way to go. Victoria's annual interest bill on its debt will rise towards $9 billion/yr by 2027 according to CBA analysis. Log in. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. 4% this time last yr. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “No strong view on NSW election other than that NSW Labor Treasurer Daniel Mookhey is the smartest and hardest working politician I have ever dealt with in my life @dmookheyMLC @ALeighMP” Well you called it when you said we could likely have another series of rate hikes after the pause @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Immigrants need groceries, cars, bank accounts, etc”“Westpac data shows that exactly 50% of all borrowers are less than one month ahead on their mortgage repayments, or behind. . We await policy details to review our outlook". “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus we’re feeling nauseous from the chemo 🤦♂️ @cjoye True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in. The wage costs for businesses producing products is far too high and can only be addressed by greater productivity, which means fewer workers. 1. 1. It'll work right up until the point it is discovered that debt outstrips M2 money by a factor of 10:1 . We reap what we sow. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. com. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 9:26 PM · Aug 15, 2022 · Twitter Web App. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Games fiasco will leave business shaking its head at Victorian farce. Discerning Coins for example is a new way of collecting coins - using the blockchain! Chris, we've talked about this. I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. afr. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. So presumably brought their first home. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. The latest tweets from @cjoye christopher joye. Aug 16. Master Your Unstoppable Mindset. IR here are… Show more . Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722 Embed Tweet. Replying to. Embarrassingly wrong. “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australian money is rushing out of the crypto exchange, and customers are willing to accept a big haircut to cash out their holdings. macrobusiness. . christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. & 50% are admin. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye yep, thats the point. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. Likes. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 9:35 PM · Aug 9, 2022 · Twitter Web App. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday mornings, I will be buried in one. Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. Considering the RBA's housing price model predicts some pretty major price falls if rates rise 1%, it would be interesting to see how falling real wages may potentially exacerbate that. ”Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sydney (+1. 4% followed by Brisbane (-8. Replying to. 3. Try and think of the whole story not the macro people want you to hear and fear”In this conversation. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday. ConversationSee new Tweets. @cjoye Aug 6, 2022 22pc and back in 2020 - the issue with Ukraine is there is very limited data on it as a country statistically because it was only created in the early 1990s. Expect a global recession, continuing asset price declines, and waves of defaults, writes cjoye. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersThe data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested [email protected]! From US2yr notes to the Russell2000 and Peleton, Netflix, AfterPay etc etc etc. True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. Sitting on $6. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Well done. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Key takeaways * 15-20% peak to trough in Australian housing prices remains the view. 2m are customer assets. In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. 1KWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1 million in crypto cant be withdrawn on FTX- $13. It's very unstable at the street level. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upNSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey today reveals that Perrottet/Kean had planned to burden NSW taxpayers with another $25bn of debt to allow their investment arm, TCorp, to punt this money on stocks. 2m are customer assets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upSee new Tweets. 5% plus 1% productivity. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. afr. *Potential for another RBA hiking cycle >4%. Even with yields down. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Bank of M&D or other exogenous injections can only go so far. Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. Log in. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. Log in What does the Credit Suisse bail-in of its hybrids mean for Aussie bank hybrids? @cjoye Back in 2017 I wrote about a small number of Tier 2 and AT1 structures from Genworth + ME Bank that did not convert to equity (ie, went straight to write-off) and which could invert the capital structure hierarchy - predicting a situation where shareholders would push for AT1 or T2 write-offs to minimise their losses, just as happened. 04 May 2023 06:47:40Log in.